Energy Systems: Technology and Management

Simulation of Water Shortage Crisis in Rafsanjan using System Dynamics

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Nasser Shahsavari-Pour 1
Mojtaba Afshar-Jahanshahi 2

1 Professor Department of Industrial Engineering, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics

https://doi.org/10.48306/estm.2025.232461
Abstract
The water shortage crisis and its interconnected and integrated management are among the life crises of the current period. Factors such as population growth, diversity, and plurality of population needs, traditional farming methods, etc., help to increase the domain of this crisis. The complexity of water sources and the consumption system makes it hard to manage the process of its sources and decision-making about it. This research aims to study the effective factors in water sources and the consumption system of Rafsanjan city and make a simulated model of water shortage and its causes based on the system dynamics approach. In this research, in the beginning, the water sources and consumption system of the city were simulated. With the help of the statistical method of design of experiments, the involved variables in the water shortage in the city were tested, and also with the help of this method, the sensitive variables in the system were adjusted. Finally, scenarios based on the obtained amount of the above method were presented for coping with the water shortage in this city.

Keywords

Simulation
System dynamics
water scarcity
water resources
water scarcity crisis
Rafsanjan city

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